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Monday, June 21, 2010

Shooting the breeze - TDF top ten and other stuff

Back from holiday, back to shooting the breeze. Without even a whiff of TDF bike porn yet, I probably shouldn’t do my top ten spec-u-m-lation, but what the hey, I am back at my soul destroying temp job for at least a week or so and need a boost.

1. Contador
2. A Schleck
3. Rogers
4. Evans
5. Gesink

The rest I’m not putting in order but they round out my top ten: 

Kreuziger, Frank Schleck, Tony Martin, Ryder Hesjedal, Leipheimer

1. and 2 - was a hard choice and almost heads/tails. Contador could easily have a bad moment and Schleck will take advantage. Saxo is a very strong team, but Astana hasn't been doing as badly as people are saying or want to say.  While AC can go awol sometimes and is beatable, he just won’t leave anything to chance, even cobbles prep. Contador wasn't even trying at Dauphine and still came second.Comparatively, Schleck hasn’t been in the greatest form, but he’s focused on the Tour and had similar lead up/results last year. Don’t forget AC slow pedalled last year and who knows what damage he could do, unfettered, to even Andy.  Looking forward to this tussle.

3. Rogers - not just my Canberra heart ruling here, ok, maybe a little. But HTC will have a strong - and smart - team especially for the first week. In too good form for me to ignore and his TT skills will see him hang in there. He won’t trouble - attacking wise - Schleck and Contador in the mountains though. Or will he surprise?

4. Evans – he could easily be my 3rd step choice too. This is probably a heart choice for the top five as who knows what the GIRO has taken out of him. Having said that, he’s tough and BMC - the little team that could - is hitting form at the right time. I really want to put him higher than this….

5. Gesink – only concern with Gesink is he didn’t time trial great at TdS.  However, the rest of the parcours at TdS was only a bit lumpy and he likes to climb.

Some of my other choices? I know, I should've put Kreuziger in top 5?  And could Hesjedal be Garmin’s Wiggo this year?

If Braijkovic gets a ride, then I’d put him in top ten at Levi’s expense….if he’s not called back that is. I want to put Sastre in here but not sure about his injury.

Also top ten chances/speculation – and probably should’ve put them in: Samuel Sanchez, Monfort, Nibali, Zabriskie, Lokvist, Armstrong, EBH, Ivan “look what you can do with normal blood values’ Basso, Kloden.

Armstrong not in Top Ten, even with TdS result?  I probably could’ve/should’ve put him in top ten, but – and in all seriousness as I don’t hate the guy – he’s said it himself, too many young guys (everyone is young to him) that are too good. His TdS will encourage him, but that was only nine days, the climbing wasn’t TdF like and his TT wasn’t great. Great for an ol guy but not great for someone hoping to beat Contador/Schleck. Nor was Luxembourg that great either - he was behind 2mins on 3rd place on the GC before the rains came. But who knows what he’s capable of and it’ll be a chapeau from me if he proves me wrong.

Wiggins? Sorry folks, just hasn’t had the form and he’s no Andy Schleck.  The course suited him last year but not this one.  Despite the GIRO not being his main focus, he was, well, woeful.  Happy to be proved wrong though. 

Polka dot jersey – I ain’t even going there, too bloody hard. Is Soler going to be riding? Polka dot jersey will probably also go to the winner of the GC.

Green – hard to go past Thor even if he’s been out with injury and he was in good form prior to that. Cav won’t have the train or the form like last year.   I'd dearly love to put down Farrer and Henderson as outside chances.  Whatever happens, sprints will be awesome this year and not just a one horse race this year. 

Young rider’s – Is Sicard way too young?  Sagan if he is riding?  Dunno…

Anyway, I don’t care if I get any of my top ten right. All I do care about is that the race is set alight. I couldn’t stand it if it was 2009 all over again. And neither will my husband because I’m throwing the remote through the TV if it’s a “let’s wait to see what TRS does,” fest. 

Attack attack attack boysssss!

2 comments:

  1. Blogger's comment: I can't change this post but above I meant Vande velde not zabriskie I always get them mixed up. I also forget how young schleck is and should've been instant white jersey. Der.

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  2. Blogger's comment: Hendo went on their short list but of course he wasn't riding after his big year. Numpty me. And I'm starting to rethink Wiggins not being in my top 10. I think he probably should be...umming and aahing

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